For a province that loves to market itself as independent, rugged, and resourceful, New Brunswick has a bit of an economic identity crisis. It’s a province that makes things—wood, seafood, energy, and fries them up for the world—but it sells almost all of them to one customer: the United States. That’s right, the vast majority of New Brunswick’s economy is tied to what happens south of the border, and when the U.S. sneezes, we catch a cold.
The Price of Dependence
A One-Track Economy
Let’s talk numbers. In 2022, a staggering 92% of New Brunswick’s exports went straight to the U.S. It’s a number so lopsided it would make any financial planner wince. Our top exports? Energy ($12.3 billion, mostly refined petroleum), forestry ($2.6 billion in wood and paper products), and aquaculture (mostly salmon, which makes up 20.7% of Canada’s total production). We also ship out a fair amount of agriculture, with McCain Foods alone putting New Brunswick potatoes on dinner plates across America.
It’s an economy built on the backs of industries that rely on natural resources and global demand. That’s fine—until those global markets start throwing up roadblocks. And that’s exactly what’s happening now.
How U.S. tariffs impact New Brunswick
New Brunswick’s latest economic headache? Tariffs. Washington’s ever-shifting trade policies mean that when the U.S. tightens its grip, our province bears the impact. A 25% tariff on forestry exports, for example, wouldn’t just dent the economy—it would send shockwaves through an industry that employs 24,000 New Brunswickers and generates billions in revenue. Mills would close, logging jobs would disappear, and entire communities would feel the strain.
The province’s largest employers—J.D. Irving Limited, Irving Pulp & Paper, and AV Group NB—would be among the hardest hit. With sawmills, pulp mills, and paper plants spread across places like Saint John, Chipman, and Nackawic, these companies form the backbone of many local economies. Rising costs could force them to cut back operations, delay investments, or even shutter facilities, leaving workers and their families in limbo.
New Brunswick doesn’t have the luxury of leaning on diverse export markets. The reality is, nearly everything we produce is tied to a supply chain that leads straight to the U.S. From pricing models to infrastructure, our economy is built around one dominant customer. And now, that customer is Donald Trump.
At its core, a tariff is a tax one country places on imports from another, often to protect domestic industries or gain leverage in trade negotiations. When the U.S. imposes tariffs on Canadian goods, our exports become more expensive for American buyers. Higher prices mean lower demand, and suddenly, sawmills, fish processing plants, and refineries across the province are left scrambling—not because the quality of their products has changed, but because they’ve become too costly for their biggest market.
The ripple effects don’t stop there. When industrial jobs disappear, the pain spreads. Restaurants, retail stores, and service providers that rely on workers’ spending begin to struggle. Tax revenues decline, putting pressure on public services. Even the housing market can suffer as families leave in search of better opportunities. Tariffs don’t just hit exporters—they shake the foundation of New Brunswick’s economy, affecting everyone along the way.
How New Brunswick Can Safeguard Its Future
This isn’t the first time tariffs have threatened New Brunswick’s economy, and it won’t be the last. But it should be a wake-up call. Here’s what needs to happen to make sure we’re not left scrambling every time Washington decides to play hardball.
1. Find New Customers
It’s time to stop treating the U.S. as the only game in town. The European Union is hungry for Canadian seafood and forestry products, and CETA (the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) gives us an open door. So why aren’t we walking through it? Asia, too, represents a massive opportunity, particularly for seafood and energy. If B.C. can ship LNG to Japan, why can’t New Brunswick?
2. Invest in Value-Added Products
New Brunswick exports a ton of raw materials—logs instead of finished furniture, salmon instead of high-end seafood products. It’s time to stop playing the role of supplier and start creating products with more value. That means keeping jobs in the province and making ourselves less vulnerable to tariff swings.
3. Lean into Tech and Innovation
If New Brunswick wants to be more than just a resource economy, it needs to invest in industries that are less reliant on volatile trade policies. This means supporting tech startups, advanced manufacturing using artificial intelligence, and green energy solutions such as wind and tidal power. These sectors offer growth potential that isn’t tied to commodity prices or foreign tariffs. By diversifying beyond natural resources, the province can create a more stable and self-sufficient economy.
4. Infrastructure That Works for Us
Our ports, rail lines, and highways are built for trade with the U.S. What if we built them for something bigger? Deep-water ports that cater to European trade, better digital infrastructure to support a growing remote-work economy—these are investments that future-proof the province.
Bottom Line
New Brunswick has spent too long depending on a single customer. It’s time to think bigger. Tariffs may be an immediate threat, but they’re also a chance to rethink how this province does business. If we want a future where our economy isn’t dictated by the whims of Washington, we need to start making changes now. Because a New Brunswick that builds, innovates, and sells to the world—not just the U.S.—is a New Brunswick that can thrive.
